Welcome to "Tracking the Internet into the 21st Century" with Vinton G. Cerf. This event is organized by TDM and is kindly sponsored by Google and IDA.

Vinton G. Cerf is the VP and Chief Internet Evangelist for Google and was also the co-designer with Robert Kahnfor the TCP/IP and the basic architecture of what we know now as the Internet. He’s also commonly known as the Father of Internet within the community. Today, he’s here with us to share with us on how Internet is going to be like as we move into the new century.

Editor: As it turns out, I couldn’t find any power sockets and the laptop will die half-way into the live blogging. The editor apologises profusely for this but hope that you’d still be able to enjoy it as much as possible.

7:00pm: People have streamed into Suntec Convention Hall by the hordes and food is being snapped up quickly. Hey, we are talking about really hungry people out here on a Friday evening. How else to bring everyone together other than food? There are puffs, and cakes, coffee and tea. Yummy! =) Registration have so far been smooth because there’s no walk-in. Yes, this even is so popular until it’s completely filled up. There are strictly no walk-ins and if you really want to crash into the event, well… just… point at a random name on the list. Shhhh… don’t quote me. =P

Aaron Koh is doing the recording for the event and I am assuming that he’s the official recorder. James was also here, but for the countless time, he’s given me a miss. This is sad. Really sad.

7:22pm: The event has started with an opening address from Wayne Soh of TDM. To run through a bit of the program – we are going to have some updates on TDM and Google and Vint will be giving the main course for the event; followed by a forum, some networking and supper. =) We have Google, Microsoft, MINDEF, and MCYS amongst the rest. Asking the crowd how many are here to meet Vint – the entire crowds raised their hands! Indeed, it’s all really for Vint, isn’t it? =)

Howie is now addressing the crowd and is highlighting that TDM is going through a very interesting transition now and is welcome to comments and ideas because we (TDM) really want to be known as social connectors and to bring people together. Essentially, we want to be known to be sharing and propagating ideas. Importantly, we should all have fun tonight.

7:26pm: We now have Derek, who is the regional marketing manager of HK and SEA of Google, to address the crowd. Something that most people will agree is that after hearing Vint, there’s a chance that people will walk away a little more intelligent. =)

James is now addressing the crowd and introducing Vint to the crowd. Indeed James is correct in pointing out that Vint is one of the founding fathers of the Internet, without both of whom, there will be no Internet today. For that work, they were award various recognitions by the US President. More information about Vint is available at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vinton_Cerf. As James began reading out Vint’s awards, I lost track of it because the list is really far too long. =)

7:30pm Vint is quite stunned that there are so many people here on a Friday night and he’s speculating that perhaps we are all here because of the free food! Heh. He’s actually quite excited to learn about the TDM idea because all of us come from varied backgrounds and that it’s good to see everyone get together to make a better digital environment for everybody. While Vint is here to predict what the Internet looks like 27 years down the road, he thinks that it’s really going to be off. Still, it’s fun to do so because we can all see how deviant it is going to be. =P

He’s presenting the Regional Internet Statistics which primarily talks about the penetration rates and he’s basically given up about counting for Europe because they kept adding countries!

Moving on, if we were to fast forward 27 years later, the Internet will be 52 years old. He’s clear that it takes a lot of persistence in bringing new ideas to people and getting people to accept it. Up till today, we have just over 15 years of commercial exposure and it is predicted that by 27 years later, we will have about 70% penetration rate. He also believes that penetration rates may go well beyond 100% because each person will have more than one device that is being used to access the Internet. Vint also recognise that almost every other thing under the sun and the moon will be connected to the Internet – including your refrigerator!

He also recognise that the IP standard is going to be IPv6 and that IPv4 is going to be in places where IPv6 doesn’t matter much because they are perhaps going to be private nets. He believes that by 27 years later, cables are going to be in the fibre range and that WiMax will probably be replaced. We will be having very advanced radio based technology then.

Vint recognise that we will be having very widely, horizontal standardization where commercial and Internet is concerned – pretty much different from vertical standards that we know today (i.e. standards that are specific for a particular industry). Vint mentioned that cloud computing is a very odd revisit today. Back in the old days, it was thought that computers will fill up entire buildings and that people will access them remotely. However, today, with advanced microchip technology, Google is able to make use of many microprocessors to do effective stuffs like indexing. He also believes that by 2035, virtual environments will be very common and that we will get very advanced 3D holograms – nothing like Star Trek, but something good enough.

He believes that there is nothing stopping us from mixing up real life and virtual life to give us virtual interactions. These virtual interactions and environments is something that Vint thinks students will be seeing and doing in 2035. In fact, students will be making use of science to do science.

Next, Vint covers domain names and IP addresses, where by 2035, we would have implemented a higher level naming system where domain names will never expired or be reused (hands up those who lose their domain names because they forgot to pay for it). These "personal identifiers" will stick around for years which are more permanent through some mapping scheme that will eventually eliminate what we all hate most – HTTP 404.

Vint also covered on using Google in the medical sense because there are people who search the Internet for medical conditions. An example that’s given is that the CDC is unable to track queries made by people which are specific to a disease – in particular epidemics. If there’s a way for CDC to determine what searches people are making, especially in the health areas, then there is a possibility that they will be more ready and alert to sudden spikes in particular diseases. This is also application in many fields as long as people are able to spot trends in searches. This is expected to be common in 2035.

Next up, socio-economical effects of Internet in 2035. Virtually every single type of media that’s available now will also be available in the Internet. There will be more Internet group interaction with political actions, polling and market places. Information consumers will also be the producers particularly in the areas of blogging, Youtube, personal web pages and wisdom of crowds. There will be innovation at the edge, in particular, Wikipedia is one such example. It’s also thought that 10 hours worth of video is uploaded eery minute. What’s important here is the vast sharing of information. Again, Wkipedia is an example where it is possible for experts to correct something that’s not accurate on the Internet.

At the same time, there will be more social networking (Facebook, My Space, Linked In) and game playing. However, instead of seeing people on the screen (for social networking), Vint is speculating on the possibility of actually having a Rent-A-Robot where the real person can remotely control something that’s as real as him – as opposed to seeing someone in 2D on the screen.

Touching on storage, a terabyte of storage will probably cost about $100 million dollars back in the 1970s – something that he paid a fraction for now. If he indeed have $100 million back then, there’s no way his wife is going to let him spend it on storage. =)

IPTV – today, we hear a lot of concerns on streaming video and if it’s ever possible for this amount of video to be supported. In reality, there’s more than enough capacity to support what we are doing now – and even in 2035. In fact, Gigabit connections will be very common in 2035. With that kind of bandwidth, it’s possible to download a gigabit of video in 16 seconds! Moreover, if video is downloaded instead of being streamed, this will become more popular and video streaming will be reserved for real-time events like live conferences.

Editor: Oops. Battery died. Sorry, but that was almost all about it. =)



Reader's Comments

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